%0 Journal Article
%4 sid.inpe.br/plutao/2017/06.21.20.41.41
%2 sid.inpe.br/plutao/2017/06.21.20.41.42
%@doi 10.1002/joc.5010
%@issn 0899-8418
%F lattes: 4978912302419377 1 CoelhoFirpMaiaMacl:2017:ExFeEm
%T Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil
%D 2017
%8 ago.
%9 journal article
%A Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos,
%A Firpo, Mári Andrea Feldman,
%A Maia, Aline H. N.,
%A MacLachlan, Craig,
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA)
%@affiliation Met Office Hadley Centre
%@electronicmailaddress caio.coelho@inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress mari.firpo@inpe.br
%B International Journal of Climatology
%V 37
%N S1
%P 398-411
%X This study investigates the feasibility and presents an assessment of probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil, located in a region with a well-defined wet season from mid-austral spring (October) to austral autumn (March/April). The probabilistic forecasts were produced with (1) a simple empirical Cox-regression model using July Niño-3 index as predictor, (2) the dynamical coupled atmosphere-land-surface-ocean-sea-ice model used in the UK Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) and (3) a procedure that combines the empirical and dynamical model onset probabilistic forecasts. The probabilistic forecast assessment was performed over the 19962009 retrospective forecast period for the event rainy season onset earlier (or later) than the historical (mean) onset date. The three investigated approaches resulted in similar discrimination ability of around 80%, which represents the probability of the probabilistic forecasts correctly distinguishing earlier from a later than mean onsets, suggesting good potential for rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo. The robustness of this assessment for an extended period (longer than 19962009) and for a region (20°S, 25°S, 45°W, 55°W) that includes the city of São Paulo was checked, reinforcing the validity of the obtained results at both local and regional scales.
%@language en
%3 coelho_exploring.pdf